人口红利、流动性短期过剩与中国现代金融服务供给——对2008～2010年中国金融市场走势的判断

Population Dividend,Short-term Excess Liquidity and the Supply of Modern Financial Services in China

人口结构和劳动力迁移是引起中国金融系统中流动性过剩的重要因素之一,但由此引起的流动性过剩具有短期特征,这是影响2008—2010年期间中国金融市场走势的决定性因素,中国银行业、证券业和保险业发展都受其影响。随着农村剩余劳动迁移过程进入到高一级阶段,中国简单劳动短缺将会成为事实,这会提高中国农民工的工资作价能力,进而会带动中国劳动工资水平全面提高,并引起居民对私人理财、投资顾问和个人信贷消费等现代金融服务需求显著上升。

The excess liquidity faced by China＇s financial system in recent years is characteristic of short-term phenomenon, mainly due to both China＇s population components and its labor movement. The development of China＇s financial sectorS between 2008 and 2010, such as banking, securities, and insurance, will also affected by above two factors. Along with the process of the rural labor force movement goes to a senior stage, the simple labor shortage in China will take place, which will improve the simple labor＇s competitiveness in wage bargain, and will also raise the wage level wholly in China. In the course of labor movement and short-run excess liquidity, the demand for modem financial services including private asset management, consultancy for investment, and credit for private expenditure will expand quickly in China.