银川市水资源承载力多目标情景分析

Multi-Objective Situation Analysis of Water Resources Carrying Capacity of Yinchuan City

研究了银川市水资源承载力问题,对保障银川市城市可持续发展,构建西北地区区域中心城市具有重要的战略意义和现实意义.在计算、分析和预测银川市水资源可利用量的基础上,应用多目标情景分析方法,对银川市水资源在50%、75%和95%三种不同保证率条件下,分别达到富裕标准和小康标准时的水资源承载力进行了计算分析.结果表明,在枯水年、特枯水年,银川市水资源承载力不足.通过研究得出,银川市仅靠黄河供水、地下水合理利用还不足以切实保障银川市水资源承载力需求,因此,必须发展水资源循环经济,大幅度提升工业企业循环用水率和城市中水利用率,切保银川市用水安全.

It has great strategic and practical significance to study on the water resources carrying capacity of Yinchuan city, which helps to guarantee the sustainable development of Yinchuan and also construct the Northwestern Regional Central city. Applying multi-objective situation analysis method, researchers carry on the calculation analysis on water resources carrying capacity which respectively reaches the standards of wealthy and well-off on the basis of calculating, analyzing and predicting the utilization amount of water resources of Yinchuan and under the conditions of three different kinds of guarantee rate, 50%, 75%, 95%. The result shows that the water resources carrying capacity of Yinchuan is insufficient and the carrying population is lower than the forecasting population in dry year and also much drier year. Through the research, the conclusion is drawn that it is not enough to ensure the water resources carrying capacity of Yinchuan only depending on the water supply of the Yellow River and reasonable utilization of the groundwater. Therefore, it is necessary to develop water resources cycling economy, enhance cycling water rate of industrial Enterprises and urban water utilization ratio to ensure the safety Of Yinchuan city water.