区域洪灾直接经济损失快速评估方法在太湖流域的应用研究

Study on rapid evaluation of flood economic loss in Tai Lake basin

区域洪灾损失快速评估是洪灾发生时政府及时制订科学减灾决策的重要参考。本研究以太湖流域1991年和1999年为基准年,以1981、1986、1991、1996、2001、2004和2006年为洪灾重演情景分析水平年,分析研究"1991"型洪灾和"1999"型洪灾直接经济损失随经济发展及环境改变的变化规律,分别确定各类财产损失率的变化系数值、物价指数折算系数值及各类财产的增长率值。建立了"1991"型洪灾和"1999"型洪灾直接经济损失与地区财产增长之间的关系曲线,同时结合水文要素～洪灾受灾面积之间关系推求出受灾面积,从而实现太湖流域洪灾直接经济损失快速评估,为太湖流域防洪减灾决策提供支持。

Rapid evaluation of flood economic loss can assist the government in making timely and scientific decision to reduce the flood impacts. The Tai Lake basin is characterized by frequent flood disaster, so the research carried out in this region will be of great realistic significance. In this research, 1991 and 1999 were chosen to be the base year, and scenario analyses were made in 1981, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2004 and 2006. The changing pattern of flood economic loss in 1991 and 1999 of Tai Lake basin with economical development and environmental change was analyzed. The loss rates of different property, converting rates of price index and growth rates of different property were determined respectively. Then, the relation curves of direct flood economic loss in 1991 and 1999 of Tai Lake basin and regional property growth were established. Meanwhile, the disaster area was inferred from the relationship between hydrological factors and flood disaster area. On the basis of all above, we can realize the rapid evaluation of flood economic loss in Tai Lake basin.