信贷危机后 通货紧缩将成为西方经济体主要风险

Deflation expected to be key risk after credit crisis

该文首先简要回顾了信贷危机发生以来全球市场的状况,进而分析了信贷危机对美国消费市场、新兴经济体和全球商品市场的影响,指出商品市场剧烈波动、严峻的通货膨胀对新兴经济体的威胁及其采取的对策;最后该文对通胀前景表示乐观,但认为信贷危机将导致世界经济的萎缩,同时认为通货紧缩将再度成为西方面临的主要风险。

After a review of the global market performance in the aftermath of the credit crisis, this paper analyzes the influence of the crisis on the US consumption market, emerging economies and global commodity markets. It points out the threat to emerging economies from the tumultuous commodity markets and stern inflation, and throws light on the response these economies have taken. The author is relatively sanguine on inflation; however, he expects that the crisis will lead to slower economic activities and that deflation will return as a key risk for the West.