金融开放与利率的外部冲击——债券市场的一个新现象

Financial opening and external impacts on interest rate——A new phenomenon in bond market

该文认为在全球化背景下,我国债券市场面临的环境也更加复杂,其他国家股市的涨跌、汇率的走势、利率的变化都会对我国债券市场的行情产生影响。文章重点分析了全球化背景下,我国利率和美国利率的共振特征,指出我国债券市场的走势与美国的相关性明显增强;进而分析了人民币汇率变动对利率波动的影响,认为在关注外部因素对我国债券市场的影响时要特别注意汇率对境内利率的影响。

China’s bond market is facing an increasingly complex environment amid the globalization trend. The market is subject to the performance of foreign equity markets, and exchange rate and interest rate changes. With an analysis of the sympathetic vibrations between interest rates in China and the United States, this paper concludes that an increasing correlation works between the bond markets in the two countries. Then, the paper discusses the impact of the RMB exchange rate on interest rate, and suggests that such an impact should be taken into consideration in measuring the influence of external factors on China’s bond market.