摘要
提出了一种对边坡进行稳定风险分析的新方法。首先通过有限元强度折减法搜寻边坡主要失稳模式,然后采用响应面方法构造各失稳通道上单元的功能函数,采用蒙特卡罗法计算其失效概率,采用PNET法计算各失稳模式的破坏概率,最后,采用Ditlevsen窄界限法计算失效模式联合发生的概率,从而获得高边坡的综合失稳概率。采用这种新方法,对南桠河姚河坝水电站厂房高边坡进行了边坡失稳风险研究,得出该高边坡具有较强的抵御失稳风险能力的结论,同时表明用该方法进行高边坡风险分析具有可行性。
This paper deals with reliability analysis with a new method. The major slope failure modes are first identified by the finite -element strength reduction method. The performance function for a particular slip surface found by the finite element method is es- tablished by the response surface method and the corresponding failure probability is calculated by the Monte-Carlo method. The probability of failure for each failure mode that may contain several slip surfaces can be calculated based on PNET method. Finally, the united failure probability of the slope can be obtained by using Ditlevsen＇s narrow limits method. With this new computational method, reliability analysis of a high slope in the Yaoheba Hydroelectric Station in the Nanya River is made as an engineering example. It shows that the new method is able to handle multiple failure mechanisms involved in the slope.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2008年第9期114-116,共3页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
