摘要
根据能源供给、需求、价格的复杂关系,以及能源生产企业对市场需求信息的了解到调控能源供给有一个时间滞后,建立了时滞影响下区域能源供需平衡模型.从平衡点的稳定性,相轨迹,Dulac函数等方面研究其动力学行为.利用主项分析法对平衡点稳定性进行分析,得出能源的消费需求与能源供应以及能源进口趋向稳定的条件.同时给出能源平衡表来分析两个区域(江苏和陕西)2000—2005年能源供需现状,进一步验证了模型在很大程度上反映了区域能源供需的实际,并提出相应的能源对策确保我国能源经济系统健康、稳定、快速地发展.
Considering the complex relationship among energy supply, demand and prices, and the time delay for energy producing enterprise to regulate the energy supply after getting information on market demand, the regional energy supply-demand model under the influence of time delay is set up. By studying its dynamic behavior from the stability of equilibrium point, phase diagram and Dulac function, and by analyzing the stability of equilibrium points by main monomial analysis, a stable condition for energy supply, demand and import can be reached. For the given energy balance of the two regions （Jiangsu and Shanxi） , the current situation of energy supply and demand during 2000-2005 is analyzed. The model is verified to reflect the actual regional energy supply and demand to a large extent. It offers a strategy for China＇ s energy-economic system to maintain a high growth and healthy, stable development.
出处
《江苏大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
北大核心
2008年第5期453-456,460,共5页
Journal of Jiangsu University：Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(90610031)
关键词
能源供需
时滞
平衡点
主项分析法
DULAC函数
energy supply and demand
time delay
equilibrium point
main monomial analysis
Dulac function
