户籍制度、城市化与服务业增长关系的实证分析

Substanial Analysis on the Relationship between the Census System,Urbanization and the Service Increasement

改革开放以前,中国实行的严格户籍制度对中国的城市化水平带来了严重的负面影响,也影响了中国服务业的增长。研究表明,改革开放以来,以人口自由流动(并非人口自由迁徙)为代表的户籍政策松动,为服务业增长带来了积极的影响。同时,这种并非到位的改革政策使流动劳动力的收入与消费大幅度分离,导致中国服务业未能获得充足的发展,如果对户籍制度及其配套的政策进行改革,则中国服务业占GDP的比重将会提高3个百分点左右。

Before the reform and open, the severe census system carded out in China brings very serious negative effects to the urbanization level and affects the increasement of China＇s service industry. The research shows that the flexible census system represented by the population flowing independently brings positive effects to the service increasement. At the same tiome, this policy makes the income of flowing labours seperated from the consumption,which lead to the service industry cannot get the enough development. If we reform the census system and the coordinated policy, the proportion of China＇s service industry in GDP will raise 3%.