河北省小麦产量的波动性分析

Analysis on Fluctuation of Wheat Production in Hebei Province

河北省小麦生产对于保障我国粮食安全负有重要责任。测算了1986～2006年河北省小麦生产的波动指数、波动周期和波动幅度，揭示了小麦生产的波动规律，研究了单产、播种面积、成本收益率和国家政策与小麦产量之间的关系。结合河北省小麦生产的现状，提出了稳定和发展河北省小麦生产的途径，即严格贯彻耕地保护政策，稳定小麦播种面积；降低生产成本，提高成本收益率；积极推进农业科技进步，保证小麦单产的持续增长。

Hebei Province has an important responsibility to ensure the food security of the country. The fluctuation index, fluctuating cycle and amplitude of wheat production in the years of 1986 - 2006 in Hebei were measured and calculated. The movement rules of wheat producing fluctuation were disclosed, and the relation between yield per unit area, seeded area, cost earning ratio, country policy and wheat production was studied. Combining with current situation of wheat production, the way for stabilizing and developing the wheat production in Hebei Province was put forward, i.e. strict executing the farmland protection policy, stabilizing wheat seeded area; lowering production costs, increasing cost earning ratio; active promoting agricultural science and technology and ensuring a continuous increase of wheat per unit area.