施肥水平对长武旱塬地冬小麦产量影响的模拟

Simulation of fertilization effect on winter wheat yield in Changwu dry highland

为了在实时气象条件下确定旱塬区适宜的肥力水平和产量水平,在模拟精度验证基础上,应用WinEPIC模型模拟研究了黄土高原长武旱塬地1957～2001年期间不同肥力水平下连作冬小麦田产量效应。模型验证结果表明CK、N、NP处理产量模拟值与观测值之间的相关系数分别为0.740、0.764和0.740,均达到显著水平,WinEPIC模型对不同肥力处理下冬小麦籽粒产量模拟较为准确。模拟结果表明,无肥、低肥、中肥和高肥处理下连作冬小麦的产量均呈现波动性降低趋势,其平均值分别为1.055、1.422、2.405和3.170t/hm2,不同肥力处理间差异显著,以中肥和高肥处理增产效果最好。为黄土高原南部沟壑区旱地小麦生产的可持续发展提供了科学依据。

In order to determine the suitable level of fertilization and production in dry highland under real time meteorological condition, the WinEPIC model was used to simulate continuous winter wheat yield under different fertilization treatments in Changwu dry highland based on model validation. The validation result shows that correlation coefficients of winter wheat yield between observed and simulated are 0.740, 0.762 and 0.740 respectively for treatments of CK, N and NP, which all reach significant level. Win EPIC model can simulate winter wheat yield precisely under different fertilization treatments. The simulation results indicate that grain yields of the continuous winter wheat under no fertilization, low fertilization, medium fertilization and high fertilization treatments decrease significantly with fluctuation, average yields are 1.055, 1.422, 2.405 and 3.170 t/hm^2, respectively. The differences among treatments are significant. Medium and high fertilization treatments are better to increase winter wheat yield. The results can provide scientific basis for sustainable development of winter wheat in Loess Plateau.