河北省耕地资源时空格局演变和驱动力

Temporal and spatial evolution of farmland resources and its driving forces in Hebei Province

根据河北省1995-2005年耕地变化统计数据,研究耕地利用现状和耕地资源的时空变化规律,应用主成分分析和线性回归模型,定量研究了耕地资源和各社会经济驱动因子之间的关系,结果表明:10a间耕地总面积和人均耕地面积都经历了"缓慢减少-急剧减少-相对稳定"的变化过程,均呈现总体减少的变化趋势。空间区域差异明显,表现为平原区耕地减少最多,占37.80%;丘陵山区耕地减少面积占26.09%。农业结构调整、农业现代化和社会经济发展水平、粮食安全是河北省耕地资源变化的主要驱动力。加强耕地变化驱动力与驱动机制研究,对合理利用和保护耕地资源、控制耕地面积进一步减少,保持耕地质量和数量的动态平衡,促进区域农业的可持续发展具有一定的现实意义。

According to the statistical data of farmland from 1995 to 2005 in Hebei Province, the present utilization status of farmland and the rules of temporal and spatial evolution were studied. The quantitative relations between farmland resources and social economic driving factors were analyzed by using principal component analysis and linear regressive model. The results show that the changes of total and per capita farmland areas appear similar decrease tread and experienced such phases as slow decrease, dramatic decrease and relative stabilization in recent ten years. Obvious spatial difference is existed. The decreased farmland in plain more than in hill and mountains region, the decrease rate is 37.80% and 26.09% respectively. The adjust of agricultural structure, the modernization of agriculture; the level of social-economic development and the food security are the main driving forces that influence the farmland changes. It can enhance the study of farmland change, to utilize reasonable and protect arable resources, to control the area of farmland reducing, to keep the keep the quality and quantitative dynamic equilibrium of, and to promote regional sustainable agricultural development.