广西耕地资源动态变化及其驱动力分析

Analysis on the Dynamic Changes of Cultivated Land Resources in Guangxi and Its Driving Force

根据广西1997-2005年的统计资料,分析耕地面积变化规律,采用主成分分析法和多元线性回归分析法,对耕地面积变化的驱动力进行定量研究。结果表明,经济发展、人口增长、农业结构调整和农业科技进步因素是广西耕地面积变化的主导驱动因素,其结果将为合理利用和保护耕地、促进区域可持续发展提供科学依据。

According to the statistical data in Guangxi during 1997- 2005, the change laws of cultivated land area were analyzed. The driving force of the cultivated land area changes was quantitatively studied by＂ principal component analysis method and multivariate linear regression analysis method. The results showed that economic development, population growth, agricultural structure adjustment and agricultural technology improvement were the leading driving factors of the cultivated land area changes in Guangxi. These results would provide the scientific basis for the reasonable utilization and protection of cultivated land and the promotion of the sustainable development in this area.