灰色系统理论在分析预测银川市农民纯收入中的应用研究

Application of grey sysrem theory in analysis and prediction of net income of farmers in Yinchuan

应用灰色系统理论对"十五"期间银川市农民纯收入进行关联分析,对"十一五"期间银川市农民收入水平进行预测,研究影响收入结构的主要产业和发展趋势,提出增加农民收入的主要对策.围绕"两强多优"战略,突出科技进步、结构调整、特色产业带动建设三大重点,大力发展现代农业,调整优化产业结构,着力建设城郊型现代农业产业带、灌区现代精品农业产业带、沿山沿河地区蔬菜生态农业产业带,做大特色产品,做强特色产业,促进银川市农业的持续发展.

The net income of farmers of Yinchuan during ＂the 10 th Five-Year Plan＂ was analyzed relevantly and the income level of farmers of Yinchuan during ＂the 11 th Five-Year Plan＂ was predicted by Theory of Grey System. Main estates and their development trends that influenced income structure were studied. Main countermeasures for increasing the income of farmers were proposed. The main countermeasures were to protrude the three focal points of scientific and technological progress, structure adjusting and the constructions promoted by speciality estates around strategy of ＂two mighty and many superior items＂, to greatly develope modern agriculture, to adjust and optimize the estate structures on focusing on building the belts of modern suburban agriculture, modern fine agriculture in the irrigation area and ecological vegetable agriculture along mountain and river, and to do the speciality products and estates on a greater scale in order to promote the sustainable development of agriculture in Yinchuan.