房地产开发商声誉与客户预期动态博弈研究

Dynamic Game between the Reputation of Real Estate and Customer Expectation

通过对Barro和Vickers模型加以变形,应用不完全信息动态博弈的研究方法,在理性预期的假设前提下,通过建立房地产开发商与购房者的行为博弈模型,研究房地产开发商声誉对于近期某些城市所发生的退房潮的影响。结论是在一定的制度安排下,良好的房地产开发商声誉有助于引导购房者形成有利的预期,减少退房的发生,因此对房地产开发商来说,建立一个强的企业声誉至关重要。

Based on the transformation of Barro and Vickers model, with the research method of incomplete information dynamic game theory, the paper proposed a game theory model between the real estate developers and buyers under the hypothesis of rational expectations. The model was used to research the influence of reputation of real estate developer on the influx of check-out recently occurred in some cities. The conclusion is that in a certain institutional arrangement, a good reputation of the real estate developers will help guide buyers to t：onn expectation and reduce the incidence of check-out. So a good reputation of real estate developers will be very important.