GM(1,1)动态模型在吴江市地下水水位预测中的应用

THE APPLICATION OF GM(1,1) DYNAMIC MODEL IN THE FORECAST OF GROUNDWATER LEVEL IN WUJIANG CITY

以吴江市地下水水位预测为例,详细阐述了地下水水位时间序列的GM(1,1)动态模型的原理和建立过程,并根据模型的预测值和实测值,对模型的精度进行了检验,结果表明,模型的预测精度达到了99.27%,等级属于Ⅰ级,具有实际的应用价值,为地下水资源的科学管理提供了依据。

Based on Grey system theory, this paper elaborated how to construct the GM（1,1） dynamic model of groundwater level time sequences in detail, and took the Wujiang city groundwater level as example. By comparing the real value and prediction value, the paper checked the forecast precision of model, and the results showed that the forecast precision of GM（1,1） dynamic model was 99.27%, reaching to the first degree, with practical application value, and would provide the foundation for groundwater resource scientific management.