农业病虫系统灰色动态关联分析

Grey Dynamic Interconnection Analysis of Agricultural Pest System

影响农业病虫害发生发展的各种因素复杂而多变，对它们需要采取动态的分析。在长期研究农业病虫测报技术的基础上，本文采用了灰色关联动态分析方法，对一代玉米螟发生量与越冬基数之间的关系进行分析，指出了后者对前者在远期、中期和近期的影响，为玉米螟发生程度预测因素的入选提供了依据。

Various factors which influence agricultural pests are complex and variable.Monitoring and controlling agricultural pests is a dynamic process. In this paper, grey dy-namic interconnection analysis method is used to analyze the relationship between the occur-rence of the first generation of corn borer and the amount of overwinter. The influence of the later to the former changed much among different years. Grey dynamic interconection analy-sis here provided a good method for choosing factors which are very important for pest fore-ast.