流动性导流——中国货币需求及现阶段流动性过剩问题研究

Liquidity Diversion: Money Demand and Current Excess Liquidity in China

近年来,流动性过剩成为了我国宏观经济的要害性问题。所谓"流动性导流",就是将目前过剩的流动性通过若干可能的渠道疏导到实体经济之外,使之基本不对实体经济产生负面影响。我国流动性过剩是由外向型经济结构引起的外汇过多流入造成的,在经济结构短期内难以根本改变且人民币升值预期难以根本逆转的情况下,只能从疏导过多流动性的角度来寻找防治通胀之道。具体的疏导渠道包括将一部分流动性导向境外和在境内扩大虚拟经济以吸收一部分流动性。后者是解决当前通胀压力和股市扩容压力的一箭双雕之策,也是本文的新观点所在。

In recent years, excess liquidity has become the key obstacle of macro economy in China. Liquidity diversion is to divert the current excess liquidity out of the real economy via certain possible channels, so that basically it won＇ t bring negative influences to the real economy. Excess liquidity problem in China is caused by the excess inflows of foreign currencies under the structure of export-oriented economy. Within the current situation while the economy structure can not be changed radically in a short time and the RMB appreciation expectation can not be reversed from the root, the way to prevent and control inflation can only be found via the diversion of excess liquidity. The detailed diversion channels include two ways： to divert part of liquidity out of border and to expand virtual economy to absorb part of liquidity. The latter is a ＂one stone two birds＂ method to solve the current inflation pressure and stock market expansion pressure problem, which is also this paper＇ s new contribution.