水文因子对柘林水库防洪风险率影响分析

Influence of hydrologic factor on flood control risk rate in Zhelin Reservoir

水文因子是影响调洪最高水位的主要因素.针对柘林水库入库洪水进行随机模拟,生成可能的洪水系列,通过调洪演算,求得水库可能的坝前最高水位.把所求的最高水位系列与坝高进行比较,判断柘林水库可能存在的防洪风险率,并对计算结果进行分析.

Hydrologic factor is the major factor influencing the regulation of the highest Through the stochastic simulation of inflow flood in Zhelin Reservoir and flood regulating water level in flood. calculation, we obtain the possible highest water level. After comparing the highest water level series with the dam height, we estimated the possible flood control risk rate and analyzed the calculating result.