济南市经济发展与环境质量关系实证研究

Research on the Relationship of Jinan Economy Development and Environmental Quality

经济发展与环境质量之间的关系已成为全世界普遍关心的问题,经济发展与环境污染之间的关系常用环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)来描述。选取济南市1990年—2006年的经济增长与环境质量指标,建立单位GDP污染排放量模型和人均GDP污染排放量模型,对济南市经济发展与环境污染之间的关系进行了计量分析。结果表明济南市单位GDP的污染负荷呈下降态势;通过人均GDP污染排放量模型发现,济南市的EKC不完全符合典型的库兹涅茨曲线特征,呈显著的三次曲线特点。其中,工业废水曲线为正U形,转折点的理论计算值为28 772.5元。废气与固废曲线近似于倒U形EKC的左半部分,还没出现环境转好的转折点。

The relationship between economic development and environment has always been an important subject in the worldwide. The EKC curve is often used to describe the relation between economic growth and environmental pollution. The 1990 -2006 economic and environment data in Jinan is used in this article and models of industrial waste discharge per unit GDP and industrial waste discharge per capita GDP has been established, and the relationship between economic growth and environment pollution has been researched and analyzed. We find that the pollution load per unit GDP displays a downward trend. The average per person GDP pollution withdrawal model and the model environment storehouse this kuznets curve incompletely tallies. In which, the waste water EKC takes the shape of U, and the simulated calculation value of its twoturning point is 28772.5 yuan. The curves of waste gas and solid waste are both taking the shape of the left half part of inverted U, and have not reached their better tun-ring points yet.