山东省专业技术队伍年龄分布预测模型

PREDICTED MODEL OF NUMBER AND AGE DISTRIBUTION OF TECHNICAL PERSONNEL OF SHANDONG PROVINCE AS A WHOLE AND THAT IN RURAL AREAS

借鉴宋健人口预测模型，构造了状态转移预测模型，对山东全省和山东农村专业技术队伍的年龄分布做出预测．依据专业技术队伍总量对人口总量和人口在业率的依赖性，设计了间接外延预测模型．应用这两种模型所得专业技术队伍总量的预测结果相差微小，说明这两个模型的预测精度是比较高的．

According to Song Jian Population Predicted Model, the State Transition Predicted Model was produced. With it , the number and age distribution of technical personnel of Shandong province as a whole and that in rural areas, towns and counties were predicted. According to the dependence of numbers of technical personnel on the population and its employment. Indirect Extention Model was designed. The little difference between the results predicted by the two models proved that the prediction of the two models is more precise.