央行利率政策的门限转换特征及国际证据

Threshold Switching and International Evidence of Central Bank's Interest Rate Policy

本文利用亚太地区15个国家1992～2007年的面板数据研究了央行利率政策的门限转换特征。结论认为，通货膨胀对经济增长的影响存在显著的门限特征，各国央行的利率政策也存在显著的门限转换特征。在低通胀阶段，利率没有对经济增长与通货膨胀做出显著响应；但在高通胀阶段，央行首先致力于维护金融稳定，然后促进经济增长。文章对发达国家与发展中国家进行了比较，发现二者的利率政策表现出相似的特征，但发展中国家的利率政策倾向于更高的门限值；文章最后对中国利率政策的实施提出了相关政策建议。

The nonlinearity of financial stability＇s impact on economic growth determines the monetary policy＇s nonlinearity of the central bank, The paper studies the threshold switching characteristic of central bank＇s monetary policy using fifteen countries＇s panel data in Asia-Pacifi area from 1992 to 2007. Several conclusions are drawn. Firstly, there exists significant threshold switching effect in the impact of inflation on economic growth, The interest policy doesn＇t react to growth or inflation significantly in the low-inflation stage. In the high--inflation stage, the central bank＇s major objective is to maintain financial stability and then develope economy. We make comparison between developing and developed countries and find that both reveal common characteristics, but the developed countries have much lower threshold. Lastly, we propose several suggestions for China＇s interest rate policy.