中国经济正在趋向服务化吗？--基于服务业产出、就业、消费和贸易的统计分析

Is Chinese Economy in the Direction of Tertiarization?——An Empirical Study Based on Service Output,Employment,Consumption,and Trade

就中国总体及多数省区市而言,经济服务化趋势以名义增加值、就业和消费支出衡量显著提高,以实际增加值衡量并未明显变化,以服务进出口比重衡量则显示出"逆服务化"倾向。服务相对价格指数上升既可解释服务业实际增加值比重上升乏力,同时也是导致居民服务支出比重上升的首要因素;服务业劳动生产率增长相对滞后(加上服务需求缺乏价格弹性)是服务业就业份额增长较快的主因;中国在服务消费方面已显露出"成本病"迹象。各省区市服务业实际增加值、就业和消费支出比重等经济服务化数据均支持绝对收敛假说,但服务业实际增加值比重的收敛速度大于其就业,城市居民服务消费支出的收敛速度大于农村地区,各地工业化收敛速度大于其服务化收敛速度。

For the whole China and most regions, the tertiarization trend is prominent in terms of service nominal valueadded, employment and consumption, on the contrary, which is distinct change in terms of service real value-added and the relative proportion of service import and export. The main cause for the increase of service employment proportion is the stagnant labor productivity growth in services. All the factors contribute to the ＂cost disease＂ in service consumption. For each region, the service real value-added proportion converges more rapid than service employment. The urban service consumption expenditure converges more quickly than the rural and the convergence speed in industrialization is faster than that in the tertiarization.