不可再生保险资源约束下的保险业最优增长研究

Toward the Optimum Growth of Insurance Industry with Nonrenewable Insurance Resources Constraint

风险是未来致损事件的不确定性,风险没有过去和存量概念,具有类似时间的一维性。因此,一定的社会政治经济、法律制度和文化习俗环境下,一定时间和地域空间内的具体风险载体可能存在的可保风险是有限的,是不可再生的耗竭性社会经济资源。通过某一社会经济系统在某时刻的保险产业资源投入、保险单份数和保险赔偿金的数理模型构造,考察相关政策变量的变动,分析了在保险资源不可再生约束下的保险业可持续发展的最优增长规律。研究表明在不可再生保险资源约束下,单位保单保费收入增长的充要条件是客观存在的,通过相关可控政策变量的调整,保险业是可实现最优增长的。另外,各国保险增长路径模式的差异只不过是保险经济活动专业化分工在一定制度文化背景下的演化适应与市场博弈而形成的路径不同而已。如果缺乏保险发展所需要的制度激励机制和文化背景,想要通过保险增长的优化达到促进经济增长则是很难的。

This paper analyses the optimum growth pattern for the sustainable development of insurance industry by establishing a mathematical function of the insurance resources input,the number of policies and the claim amount during a said period of the whole social economic system,and by using the fluctuation results of relevant controllable policy variables.The paper concludes that it is objective that there are suffieient condi- tions guaranteeing the premium income increase of a single policy.Thus,though restricted by nonrenewable in- surance resources,it is possible to achieve the optimum growth of insurance industry through adjusting the rele- vant policy variables.In addition,the paper shows that the differences existed between the types of insurance industry structures in many countries and the patterns adopted for insurance industry growth are the facts that the specialized division of insurance under certain institutional and cultural background is to fit in with the needs of market game.If in the absence of institutional and cultural prerequisites for insurance development,it is hardly possible to push forward the optimum growth of insurance industry and to achieve economic growth e- ventually by limited to optimizing insurance industry's structures.