基于自优化模拟技术的水库供水风险分析方法及应用

Risk analysis on reservoir water supply based on self-optimization simulation

针对来水与用水的不确定性,采用随机模拟技术生成供水水库来水、用水序列,并以此为基础应用自优化模拟技术建立了以供水量最大、弃水量最小为目标的供水水库调度模拟模型。根据风险分析基本理论,对水库调度结果进行供水风险分析。以南水北调中线水源地丹江口水库为例说明模型的应用。结果表明,采用随机模拟技术与自优化模拟调度相结合的方法能为水库提供最优调度方式,保证了各时段所需的供水量,也有利于降低供水风险。

The stochastic simulation technology is applied to generate the. 100-year water income and water consumption series according to the uncertainty characteristic of water income and water consumption of water supply reservoir. On this basis the self-optimization technology is adopted to establish the reservoir regulation simulation model with the maximum quantity of water supply and minimum quantity of abandon water regarded as the objectives to carry out the risk analysis of water supply. The model is applied to analyze the water supply risk of the Danjiangkou Reservoir which is the water source of Middle Route South-to-North Water Transfer Project. The result shows that the combination of stochastic simulation technology with self-optimization technology can provide the optimal operation scheme of the reservoir which not only guarantee the water demand in different period but also reduce the risk of water supply.