摘要
从文献回顾中提炼出对能源需求有重大影响的宏观经济因素;基于中国1985～2005年的统计数据,利用通径分析法测算了各相关宏观经济因素与能源消费需求的直接、间接关系及总影响程度,结果表明经济增长、全国总人口、能源消耗结构是决定能源消费需求的主要因素;利用偏最小二乘法消除多重共线性,并基于各主要影响因素的信息对能源需求进行预测;最后通过实际检验说明了所提方法的有效性和实用性。
China＇s energy resource demands were forecast and analyzed by a sort of bran-new way. The factors influencing the energy demand were found by reviewing the literature. The direct, indirect relation and the total influence between each correlated factor and the energy demand were measured using path analysis based on the data of 198542005 statistic of China. Results indicate that the main factors that infect the energy demand are the economic increase, the total population and the structure of the primary energy consumption. Secondly, we use the PLSR （partial least squares regression） to eliminate the multicollin earity and have a transverse forecast of the energy demand based on the information on the main effected factors. The validity and practicability of this approach are also explained.
出处
《管理学报》
CSSCI
2008年第5期651-654,共4页
Chinese Journal of Management
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(70121001
70473072
70773091)
