美国拉弗最高税率估计及减税政策评价

The Estimation of American Laffer Highest Tax Rate and the Evaluation of the Tax Reduction

布什政府为刺激本国经济增长采取了大规模的以减税为核心的积极性财政政策,结果表明美国的宏观税负水平有所下降,但是从长期看政府的财政收入有增无减,并且在布什执政的四年后,美国经济走出了衰退,进入恢复性增长阶段。本文以"拉弗最高税率"作为税收政策评价标准,利用尼斯卡宁线性回归方程,得出减税后美国的宏观税负水平更加接近美国拉弗最高税率的结论,做出布什政府以减税为核心的财政政策是比较成功的评价。

In order to stimulate American economic growth, the Bush government has adopted positive financial policy with the core of large tax reduction. The result of the tax reduction demonstrates the decrease of American macro revenue burden. However, in the long run, the financial revenue of the government increases continually. In addition, four years later, American economy has got rid of the economic recession, and stepped into the period of restorative increase. This paper, taking ＂Laffer highest tax rate＂ as the standard of evaluation, and assuming Niskanen linear regression equation, draws a conclusion and evaluation that the current American macro revenue burden is closer to the Laffer highest tax rate than ever before, and the Bush government has comparatively succeeded in implementing the positive financial policy with the core of tax reduction.