水质模型参数识别与验证的探讨

Discussion on the Parameter Identification and Verification of Water Quality Models

参数识别与模型验证是水质模型应用的两个重要步骤。在对模型参数的本质含义进行辨析的基础上,对模型参数的时变性、集成性和可识别性进行了分析。采用科学哲学的方法,对水质模型验证的必要性和不足进行了讨论,指出虽然模型验证必不可少,但也不能证实模型本身就是实际物理和生化过程的反映,因此应充分地意识到"经过验证的"模型在预测中的风险。

Parameter identification and verification are important steps in water quality modeling. Based on the essence of the parameters, the characteristics such as time variety, integrity and identifiability were analyzed. From the viewpoints of scientific philosophy, this paper discussed the necessity and shortcomings of model verification. Though the model verification is necessary, it can not be concluded that the model is the truth of the real physical and biochemical process. So the risk of adopting the ＂verified＂ model should be realized.