央行票据对冲外汇占款的长期效应分析及政策建议

Analysis of Long-term Effect of Issuing Instruments of the Centre Bank to Hedge Against Exchange Position and Some Policy Considerations

结合我国特殊的转轨背景,从长期的角度,分析了中国人民银行发行央行票据对冲外汇占款这一做法的制度缺陷,指出央行票据作为对冲工具可能给经济带来各种负面影响,如降低经济效率并造成社会福利损失,对冲的政策效力弱化,调控方向与经济增长的长期目标不协调,挤出商业银行贷款并可能扭曲经济结构以及内外平衡的冲突等。因而,尽管在短期发行央行票据是中国人民银行理性选择的结果,但是,从长期看,央行票据不可能承担公开市场主流操作工具的重任。因此,在这一政策工具真正完成历史使命之前,一方面,应大力发展和完善我国的国债市场;另一方面,要继续推进汇率制度改革,同时,积极开发并综合使用多种对冲工具。

The possible systematic defects due to issuing a great deal of instruments of the central bank to hedge against China＇ s existing huge exchange position are analyzed in a long-term perspective, such as reducing economic growth rate and bringing adverse influence on social welfare, weakening the policy effectiveness of hedge, making the current macroscopic economic control incoordinate with the long-term objective of economic growth, tightening bank loan so as to distort the overall economic structure eventually and causing the conflict between internal and external economic demands. Therefore, although issuing lots of instruments of the central bank in a short time is a rational choice, instruments of the central bank are unable to play the role as the principal instrument as an alternative to operate the national debt in an open market for long. So, on the one hand, we should step up the effort to develop and perfect the domestic national debt market and, on the other hand, it is necessary to reform the system of exchange rate of RMB continuously and make comprehensive use of various hedging implements.