成品油调价的影响与价格全面改革的时机

Finished Oil Price Rising: Its Impact and Price Fixing Reform

认为2008年6月份的成品油调价对我国经济社会的影响不会很大。2008年我国CPI可能会出现前高后低的走势,但全年涨幅可能超过4.8%的调控目标。石油价格在高位运行,资源税、消费税改革优先,通胀压力较大的情况下,2008年推出成品油定价机制改革的时机不太成熟,但下半年成品油价格继续上调有一定的可能。2009—2010年我国成品油定价机制改革的时机可能更趋成熟。

The impact of finished oil price rising in June 2008 on China economy is not apparently different. China CPI in 2008 is probably going down and the annual growth rate will exceed the fixing goal 4.8 percent. Under the condition of high oil price, high pressure of inflation, and to give priority to reform of resource tax and consumption tax, the appropriate time for China finished oil price fixing reform will probably be in 2009--2010.