广州市土地利用变化趋势及驱动机制研究

Trends and Driving Mechanism of Land Use Change in Guangzhou

对广州市的土地利用变化特征、趋势及驱动机制进行较全面深入的研究,对于探索土地利用变化的内在机制及其合理利用有着重要意义。分析1996-2006年广州市土地利用变化,发现其内部空间差异显著;运用SPSS对其进行时间序列曲线估计,发现该市土地利用变化趋势明显;运用因子分析法对该市土地利用变化的驱动机制进行定量分析,发现其驱动机制可归纳为经济发展水平因子、区域产业结构因子和外资因子,各因子对广州土地变化的影响作用大小存在差异。

By using the data of land use change survey in Guangzhou from 1996 to 2006, the spatial distribution and trends of land use change are analyzed with the software of SPSS. It is found that spatial difference of land use in the area was distinct： the farmlands distributed in the outermost area decreased the fastest, and they were mostly transformed into construction land; land use for transportation increased obviously in most districts of the city; the decrease of unused land was on degression from the outermost area to the urban center. As for the trends of land use change, farmland had an obvious trend of decrease, but the speed slowed down; transportation land use showed a trend of expansion; residential area and mining land continued to increase; unused land was reduced year by year. From the results of factor analysis, it is found that the driving factors of land use change included economic development level, regional industrial structure and foreign investment. They affected the land use change in Guangzhou to different extents： the economic development level factor made the greatest impact on land use, the regional industrial structure factor came second, and the factor of foreign investment played an insignificant role.