宁夏社会经济及生态需水量预测

Forecast of water demand for social economic and ecological uses in Ningxia

利用定额法、趋势预测法等不同的研究方法对宁夏的生活、生产及生态需水量进行了预测,确定了宁夏地区未来不同水平年、不同降水频率下的需水总量。结果表明:宁夏生活需水量与第二、三产业需水量呈增长趋势,但是由于农业需水量下降较大,使宁夏总需水量呈下降趋势。需水量预测结果为宁夏的水资源配置和产业结构调整提供了基础依据。

Different research methods, including the quota method and the trend prediction method, were used to forecast domestic, industrial and ecological water demand under different precipitation frequency regimes in different year stages. The results show that water demand for domestic use, followed by the industrial and service sector demand, will increase, while the total water demand will decrease because of the sharp decrease of agricultural water demand. The results provide a basis for rational allocation of water resources and adjustmaent of industry in Ningxia.