河湖水华预测方法研究

Forecast methods for algal bloom in rivers and lakes

以水华预测研究方法的发展为主线,着重从机理生态建模和智能方法建模两方面对水华预测方法进行总结。通过对国内外常用预测模型的建立思路和应用实例进行分析和描述,比较了机理模型和智能模型的优缺点和使用范围。最后,针对目前水华预测存在的问题进行了分析,指出机理建模和智能方法的有机结合将为准确预测水华提供有效的途径。

Algal bloom forecast methods are reviewed. Two modeling methods, the ecological modeling based on the mechanism of algal blooms and the intelligent modeling, are described in detail. On the basis of different worldwide forecast models and examples, the advantages and disadvantages of the methods, as well as their application scopes, are analyzed. Finally, problems in algal bloom forecasting are presented. It is concluded that combining ecological modeling with the intelligent modeling will be an effective way to forecast algal blooms.