潜在产出与产出缺口估算——基于新疆1978—2007年的数据的实证研究

The Estimation of Potential Output and Output Gap——The empirical research based on data of Xinjiang from 1978 to 2007

利用两种潜在产出的估计方法,估算出新疆1978—2007年间的潜在产出、产出缺口。结果表明:(1)这期间新疆的产出缺口出现了波动水平正负交替的古典周期情形,经济运行平稳性还有待加强;(2)新疆市场经济的信息传导机制逐步完善,政府宏观调控对经济运行有着显著影响;(3)根据以消除趋势法和生产函数法估算的潜在产出,我们可以推断1978—2007年间的平均潜在产出增长率为9.82%。

An estimation of potential output and output gap was made by using two different approaches respectively. The resuks shows （1）Output gap presented classical business cycle character from 1978 to 2007 ; （2）The maeroeconomie policies had significant el- feet on economy , and the mechanism of information transferred was improved in Xinjiang recently ; （3）According to the potential out- put and output gap estimated, a deduction was arrived at that the average growth rate of potential output was 9.82 % from 1978 to 2007.