新疆喀什地区黑热病分布的趋势面分析

Trend surface analysis of distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in Kashgar Endemic Region of Xinjiang,China

目的了解喀什地区黑热病地理分布特征和趋势。方法采用趋势面分析方法,对喀什试点地区1990～2005年黑热病累计发病率资料进行分析,建立趋势面数学模型。采用趋势面拟合适度的R检验及显著性F检验、趋势面适度的逐次检验和根据疾病的地理流行病学特征直观判断4种方法确定最终模型阶次。结果根据趋势面数学模型绘制的各界次的趋势面图经过4种方法综合分析,3阶趋势面方程为最适模型,其拟合方程为:z=132.040 533+ 3.430 846 5x-2.569 720y-0.125 046x^2+0.026 609 2xy+0.023 260 9y^2-0.000 101 7x^3+0.002 537 7x^2y- 0.001 609 9xy^2-0.000 397y^3(R^2=0.693 7,P=0.017 4),从理论和实际上能较好的反映黑热病的空间分布情况。结论趋势面分布图显示喀什地区黑热病累计发病率具有明显的空间聚集性分布的特点,为进一步研究黑热病的控制策略提供了依据。

Objective To explore characteristics and trend of geographical distribution for visceral leishmaniasis（VL） in Kashgar. Methods The trend surface analysis method was used and a trend surface mathematical model was set up using the accumulated incident rate data from 1990 to 2005 in the pilot villages. Four different methods including R^2 test, F test, goodness of fit order by order test and subjective judgment method based on geographical epidemiology of disease, were used to select the order of trend surface model. Results Based on the contour map of accumulated incidence rate of VL drawn by the mathematical model, which was analyzed by the four methods, the 3 order trend surface equation was optimal to show the spatial distribution of VL theoretically and practically. Conclusion The contour map of accumulated incidence rate of VL showed spatial aggregate distribution in the pilot study areas, which could be an evidence for fur ther study on leishmaniasis control strategies.