东北地区玉米低温冷害气候和经济损失风险分区

The risk division on climate and economic loss of maize chilling damage in Northeast China

分析了东北地区玉米低温冷害发生的热量条件、发生频率、风险指数和风险概率,用冷害气候风险评价指标将东北地区划分成高、偏高、中等、较低和低风险5个玉米低温冷害气候风险区域。考虑到冷害气候风险和玉米产量和面积比例等农业生产结构因素,建立了玉米低温冷害的气候—灾损综合风险评估模式,并将东北地区划分成高风险、较高风险、中风险、较低风险和低风险5个玉米低温冷害灾损综合风险区域,并指出各区域减缓玉米冷害风险的技术和战略措施。结果表明,东北地区的北部、东部和中部低温冷害灾损风险较大,吉林省西南部和辽宁省大部风险较小。

The thermal condition, occurring frequency, risk index and climatic risk proba- bility of the maize chilling damage in Northeast China were analyzed, and the synthetic cli- matic risk index and model were developed. Northeast China was divided into five climatic risk areas（highest, higher, moderate, lower and lowest）using synthetic climatic risk in- dex. The risk evaluation model of climate-economic loss of the chilling damage was devel- oped using synthetic climatic risk index, considering the maize＇s output and proportion of planting area. On this basis, Northeast China was divided into five typical damage areas of economic loss risk, including the highest, higher, moderate, lower and lowest one. Then the authors put forward relevant measures to reduce the damage risk in different areas. The difference in damage risk is obvious in different areas. The northern and eastern parts of Northeast China are the highest climatic risk areas, and southwestern Jilin and most parts of Liaoning are the lower ones. The central part of Northeast China, the north- ern part of Heilongjiang and eastern Jilin are the highest risk areas on economic loss, western Jilin and northeastern Liaoning are moderate, the central and eastern parts of Lia- oning are lower, and southern Liaoning is the lowest one even without risk. Though the climate becomes warm, the supply-demand relation of thermal condition of maize production is still tense as a result of the increasing proportions of maize produc- tion（especially the late-ripe species）. Therefore, the chilling damage risk is still high in most parts of Northeast China, and we should positively control the chilling damage under the condition of climatic change. The main measure to reduce the damage risk firstly is to improve the planting structure, adjust the maize variety proportion in different areas; and secondly is to use the cultivating technique of resisting the damage for promoting the re- sistibility.