企业诚信度的贝叶斯估计研究

The Bayesian Estimate of the Enterpise's Faith Level

本文利用贝叶斯分析方法建立了评估企业诚信度的概率估计模型,并选取了一些有代表性的企业进行实证分析。与现有的同类问题研究相比,本模型的特点是将决策者个人经验和主观判断作为先验信息与样本信息相结合、将财务数据与诚信表现相结合,从而提高了估计的可靠性和准确性。

This paper build up a warning system of enterprise＇s sfinancial risk using Bayesian method and analysis several enterprises financial situation. Compared with other models, this method combines the prior with the samples information and combines financial data with honor degree,so the estimate about enterprise is more creditable and more accurately.