中国工业制成品贸易条件影响因素探析

Probing into the Effect Factors on Terms of Trade of Manufactured Product in China

当前,我国工业制成品贸易条件不断走低。贸易条件的变化由进出口商品价格的变动决定,而价格变动除受供给和需求变动支配外,还直接受汇率、关税水平的影响。此外,国家的货币和财政政策、对外贸易政策、经济周期及通货膨胀率、世界市场需求的变化及世界经济周期的波动、各种非关税壁垒等,也会影响贸易条件的变动。其中,经济增长、外商直接投资、产业结构、关税及汇率是影响我国工业制成品贸易条件变动的主要因素。而经济增长、产业结构、外商直接投资通过影响供求关系来影响贸易条件;产业结构、关税及汇率通过价格机制直接影响贸易条件。改善贸易条件必须从多方面入手,才能有效与长久。

Along with the declining trend of Terms of Trade of manufactured product in China, the author puts efforts on the research of the effect factors on Terms of Trade. It is thought that there are five main factors which influence the fluctuation on the Terms of Trade, that is： the Economic Growth, Foreign Direct Investment, Industrial Structure, Tariff and Exchange Rate. The first three factors influence Terms of Trade by the demand and supply; the last two factors do effect through the price mechanism.