从人口学角度看“中国威胁论”依据模型的理论缺陷

On Theoretic Flaws of China Threat Theory form Demography Attitude

文章从人口学角度分析克莱因模型的缺陷,认为克莱因模型存在片面夸大人口数量在综合国力中的作用、忽视人均指标的重要性、忽视人口质量在经济发展和综合国力提高中的重要作用、忽视人口结构对一国综合国力的影响和缺乏人口变化的动态性等诸多缺陷。对以此模型为依据的"中国威胁论"进行反驳,揭示"中国威胁论"的实质所在,最后对如何应对"中国威胁论"提出建议。

Starting with analyzing flaws of Clines model from a demography aspect, it is pointed out in the paper that there exist many flaws in the model including overstating the role of population scale in comprehensive national power, while neglecting the significance of per capita indicators, the vital function of population quality on economic development and improvement of national power as well as the impact of population structure on comprehensive national power, and lacking the dynamic of population change. The China Threat Theory that based on this model is rebutted and the essence of the theory is revealed. In conclusion, proposals on how to react to China Threat Theory are made.