养老保险替代率警戒线测算模型及实证分析——以陕西省为例

An Empirical Analysis on the Calculation of Pension Insurance Substitution Rate Alertness Line:Based on Shanxi Province

根据养老保险必须维持退休职工基本生活的原则，本文将养老保险替代率警戒线界定为能够维持退休职工基本生活的替代率水平下限，以扩展线性支出系统（ELES）为基础，构建了养老保险替代率警戒线模型和指标体系，并以陕西省为例进行了实证分析。结果表明，1997-2006年陕西省的养老保险替代率警戒线约为45％，基本保持稳定；但同一时期陕西省养老保险实际替代率下降速度较快，按照这一趋势，将在2012年前后触及警戒线水平，退休职工的基本生活将会受到较大影响。

In accordance with the principal that pension insurance must satisfy with basic living demand of retired staff, the pension insurance substitution rate alertness line is fixed at the lower limit. Based on Extend Linear Expenditure System （ELES） the pension insurance substitution rate alertness model and indicator system are established, and an empirical analysis taking Shanxi Province as example is made. The results demonstrates that from 1997 to 2006, the substitution rate alertness line was 45%, remaining steady; while during the same period, the real substitution rate decreased at a relatively high speed. The trend will continue. The alertness level will have been reached around 2012, which will bring about severs impact on retired staff＇s basic living conditions.