摘要
利用西藏高原主要农区1961-2006年的气象资料,初步分析了作物生长季各气候要素的变化特征及趋势,并采用费希尔最优分割法对各要素的突变进行了诊断分析。分析表明：近46 a来,除昌都呈微弱的降温趋势外,西藏农区生长季平均气温均表现为显著的升温趋势,升幅为0.09-0.31℃/10a;前20 a（1961-1980年）降水表现为减少的趋势,自1981年开始呈现增多趋势,日照的变化正好与之相反,前20 a呈增多趋势,1981年之后为减少趋势。沿江河谷农区的突变点较一致,1982为气温由冷到暖的转折点,降水和日照的突变点出现在1998年。
By using the meteorological data in main farm belts of Tibet from 1961 to 2006,the change character and trend of climatic factors in crop growth season was analyzed.And then the abrupt character was analyzed by using Fisher optimization segmentation.The results show that： except in Changdu,the average air temperature of crop growth season in farm belts of Tibet all show a prominent warming trend in the recent 46 years,and its rate is 0.09～0.31℃/10a.The precipitation has a decreasing trend from 1961 to 1980,but it has an increasing trend after 1981.The sunshine change is in opposition to precipitation,which shows an increasing trend from 1961 to 1980 and decreasing trend after 1981.The jump time is almost consistent in farm belts along rivers.The turning point of air temperature from cold to warm is in 1982,but that of precipitation and sunshine is in 1998.
出处
《干旱地区农业研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第5期249-254,共6页
Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas
基金
中国气象局2007年气候变化专项(CCSF2007-25)
关键词
西藏
生长季
气候变化
突变分析
Tibet
growth season
climate change
abruption analysis
