电能消费与区域经济增长的协整分析

Cointegration analysis of energy consumption and regional economic growth

基于协整理论的经济计量模型,采用ADF检验方法,实证探讨了陕西经济增长与电能消费之间的协整性与因果关系。结论显示应更多地从短期波动角度出发研究电力与经济间的关系,充分估计电力对整个地区国民经济发展的促进和制约作用。采取各种有效措施,努力缓解电力供需紧张矛盾,搞好电力的调度工作,使有限的电力使用更合理。

Based on the economic measuring model of cointegration theory, this article probes into the relations between Shaanxi economic growth and energy consumption. The results show that the relations should be studied from short-term-wave. Moreover, the promotion and restriction effect on the whole district＇s economy should be estimated sufficiently. Kinds of effective measures must be taken to relax the contradiction of electric power shortage, and the electric power＇s attemper should be done well to make limited electric power employed with reason.