中国参考盯住篮子货币干预的实证研究

An Empirical Research on China’s Exchange Intervention by Referring to Currency Basket

基于外汇市场干预灵活性的考虑,2005年7月,我国选择了参考篮子货币、有管理的浮动汇率制度。本文基于2005年1月至2008年3月的日数据,估计人民币货币篮子的影响权重及中央银行的干预规则。通过分析看到,直至2006年初才启动参考盯住篮子货币干预,并且是各币种逐渐引入干预规则,美元的影响权重逐渐下降,参考篮子货币的调整是积极稳定的。

Based on the data of exchange rate from 01/03/2005 to 03/31/2008, this paper estimates the effects of RMB currency basket and interventional rules of PBOC. In 2005, PBOC intervened RMB exchange rate by pegging. The intervention by referring to a currency basket began to work until 01/01/2006. The first referral currency is Japanese Yuan, then Euro was introduced into the basket in 2007. The effect of U.S. Dollar on RMB was declining during this period.