长三角快速客运网城际公共交通分担率模型

Inter-Urban Public Transport Mode Share Under High-Speed Railways Network in Yangtze River Delta

分析了快速客运线投入运营后长江三角洲城际公共交通类型,设计了确定城际间合理公共交通选择枝的方法;根据影响中短途旅客出行的因素,构造了城际公共交通选择枝的广义成本函数;通过对该地区不同出行距离上的旅客进行RP(基于观察到的并已发生的行为选择)及SP(在预设的假定条件下获得的被调查者的行为选择)调查,标定了出行距离别的出发地到车站、候车、在车、车站到目的地四种行为时间价值.在此基础上,运用Logit模型,预测各类城际公共交通的客流分担率.最后,分析了上海到嘉兴、杭州、宁波、南京、扬州等城市的各类城际公共交通客流分担率,验证了本模型的合理性,得出了不同出行条件下城际公共交通客流分担率的特点.

Under the assumption that the high-speed railways are in operation in Yangtze River Delta, this paper presents the proper inter-urban public transport alternative method, and an analysis of the generalized travel cost. Based on the revealed preference （RP） and stated preference （SP） survey on different travel distance, the behavior value of time （BVOT） of different travel distance including access to the station, waiting at the station, riding on the road, egress from the station is obtained. Then different inter-urban public transport shares are calculated through the Legit model. At last, this paper analyzes different inter-urban public transport shares from Shanghai to Jiaxing, Hangzhou, Ningbo,Nanjing and Yangzhou. Some important conclusions are drawn on the basis of the examples.