开放进程中人民币汇率制度演变解读

Explaining the Evolving of RMB Exchange Rate Regime in Opening-Up Process

伴随30年对外开放,我国汇率制度经历了四个阶段的演变。如何解释开放进程中人民币汇率制度演变的动因和目的?本文基于汇率制度战略选择的新政治经济学框架对演变进程进行了分析,并对每一阶段的演变给以了详尽的阐释,在此基础上,应用Probit模型对我国政府的汇率选择行为进行了估计。本文大致得出如下结论:我国汇率制度演变是在政府主导下实现的,同时,也是政府不同阶段目标权衡的结果。此外,人民币汇率市场化之路仍然漫长。

With the 30 years opening-up,RMB exchange rate has experienced four stage evolutions.How to explain the reasons that RMB exchange rate regime evolves? This article analysis the evolution process,which based on the framework of exchange rate strategy choice,elaborated each stage's evolution,estimated choice behavior of RMB exchange rater with Probit model.The article draws the following conclusion that the evolution of RMB exchange rate regime was realized under the government leadership,and it is also the result that the government balanced its goals in different period.In addition,the marketization road of RMB exchange rate was still long.