中国货币政策中介目标的选择

Analysis on the Choice of Intermediate Goal of Chinese Monetary Policy

利用普尔分析方法对于现阶段中国应该选用何种金融变量作为货币中介目标做出分析,发现现阶段货币供应量仍是适宜的货币政策中介目标,但是同时发现货币供应量作为货币政策中介目标的有效性在不断降低。因此,在现阶段应通过各项改革措施让货币供应量更好地发挥作用,长期应促进货币政策中介目标由货币供应量向其他金融变量的转变。

Through the analysis on the financial variables as the intermediate goal of China＇s monetary policy, we find that money supply is still the suitable variable as the intermediate goal at this stage ,we also conclude that the effectiveness of the money supply as the intermediate goal gets lower and lower. Therefore reform measures should be adopted so that money supply play a better role as the intermediate goal at this stage , and in the long term money supply should be replaced with other financial varibles.