基于可再生能源替代的经济持续发展模型

Sustainable growth model based on the substitution of renewable energy

以可再生能源在总能源消费中所占比例作为替代率,讨论了可再生能源替代问题在整体经济系统中的作用.基于经济发展、能源需求、温室气体(GHG)排放、替代率等要素,建立了可再生能源替代的动态系统的数学模型.运用最优控制理论,在期望替代路径给定的条件下,求解再生替代能源产业理论上的最优发展策略.最后,根据实际数据,得出我国实现2020年可再生能源发展规划的动态优化路径,使之在满足经济持续发展对能源需求的前提下,系统要素配置最优、化石能源使用量和GHG排放最少.

The relationship between economic growth, energy exhaustion and green house gas （GHG） emissions becomes the major research topics in recent years. Our point of view is that the chance of resolving the triangle dilemma is to develop renewable energy and invest optimally in this new industry. Authors convince that awareness of the damage to economy from GHG emissions and maintain energy price at high level and make the chance much feasible. This paper presents a dynamic growth model with substitution of renewable energy, and describes how the activity of substitution impacts other elements in the economic system in the future. Finally, according to the historic data and the Development Programming of Renewable Energy in China, we use the theory of cybernetics to obtain the optimal systemic project of renewable energy industry theoretically.