综合优化模型在洪灾评估中的应用

Research on optimal model based on multiple flood disaster evaluation results

不同的洪灾评估方法得到的评估结果具有一定的差异,然而这些结果都具有一定的合理性,因此给科学决策带来了困难.针对这一问题,以多种方法的评估结果为分析对象,引入AHP法对各种评估结果进行权值分配,建立了基于多种评估结果的综合优化模型.对1998年各地区洪水灾害资料分析的结果表明,综合优化结果包含的信息量全面,综合了多种评估结果的特点,使评估结果更有说服力.该模型简便可靠,为洪灾评估的科学决策提供了有力的支持,同时该模型对于排序性评估也具有普遍适用性.

Different results are caused by a great diversity of flood disaster evaluation methods. And this bring difficulty to decision-making. Based on the problem and take the multiple results of evaluation methods as analyze objects, analytic hierarchy process （AHP） is introduced into weight value distribute for the results and an optimal model based on multiple evaluation methods is established. The analyses about flood disaster data in every district in 1998 show the synthetically optimal result includes more information and contains all the virtues of multiple evaluation results. The simple and reliable model provides effectively support for scientific decision. Meanwhile, the model is prevalent applicable for rank evaluate.