中国大陆地震趋势数学建模分析

ANALYSIS OF SEISMIC TENDENCY BY MATH MODELING IN CHINESE MAINLAND

按照中国大陆边界的划分方案，使用Mapsis软件选取了1900年以来Ms6．0级以上地震资料。使用数学中19阶多项式非线性函数建模，模型中的参数用最小二乘法求取。对地震资料进行最佳逼近拟合，并递推未来1～2年时间尺度预测。在此引用了一种数学方法来描述中国大陆地区的地震趋势规律。

In the paper, according to boundary of Chinese mainland, using MAPSIS software, the authors se- lect the data of earthquakes Ms≥ 6.0 from 1900 to now. Using the 19 -order non -linear math polynomial, and the coefficient parameters can be obtained by method of least square. They have made optimum approaches to data by fitting, and made a prediction of seismic tendency in one to two years. This provides a mathematical model prediction method to describe the rule of seismic tendency in Chinese Mainland.