物业税开征对房地产市场的影响效应分析

Impact Analysis of Property Tax Levy on Real Estate Market

由物业税的税负归宿理论剖析入手,通过建立相关模型,可对目前市场上两种描述物业税开征以后开发成本或房价下降的前景有代表性的方案加以实证测算,并按照物业税等价替代成本下降部分的原则,在采用辅助变量法的基础上,建立一个自回归分布滞后模型,从而进一步了解物业税税率的改变对商业物业租金价值变化带来的影响。

This paper starts with analyzing the home theory of the tax burden from property taxes. By establishing a related model, this paper proofs and measures two representative projects on the market which reflect the prospect that a decline of development costs or house prices after levying the property tax. According to the principle that the alternative cost equivalent to the property tax will reduce partially, this paper establishes an auto- regression distribution lag model based on using auxiliary variables, and furthermore, this paper analyses the impact of commercial property rentals changes with the change in the property tax rate.