投机、操纵与国际油价

Speculation,manipulation and international oil prices

投机是否推高了原油价格是国际上广泛争议的问题。基于对争论双方论据和论证的考察,认为原油期货市场资金规模的急速扩张是投机推高油价论的重要论据,但是,正方使用的分析方法适用于股票市场,不适用于期货市场;反方的研究方法虽然是科学的,但是由于存在监管漏洞,其论据的可靠性存在问题。通过深入分析期货市场结构、期货交易特点以及原油期货交易监管等问题,指出期货市场的新型参与者即商品指数基金往往通过与大型投资银行的互换协议进入期货市场,进而从动机和可操作性分析,得出了华尔街大投行和美英大型石油公司可能操纵油价的假说,澄清了先前意见相左的双方在讨论中的一些模糊之处,给后面的研究提供了新的思考路径。同时指出,这种对油价的操纵即使存在,也不能决定油价的长期趋势和水平。

There is widespread international debate as to whether speculation is responsible for driving up crude oil prices.Having examined the evidence offered by both sides,the authors conclude that the rapid expansion of capital in the crude oil futures market is an important argument in favor of the speculation theory.However,the methods of analysis used to support this argument are appropriate to the stock market,not the futures market.While the methodology of the opposing side is scientifically sound,regulatory loopholes pose a problem for the reliability of their evidence.Upon careful analysis of the structure of the futures market,the characteristics of the futures trade,and issues such as the regulation of crude oil futures trading,it appears that new players in the futures market,namely commodity index funds,often enter the market through swap agreements with large investment banks.Further analysis of motive and operability leads to the hypothesis that large Wall Street investment banks and British and U.S.large oil companies are manipulating oilprices.By clearing up some of the confusion arising from these contradictory views in prior discussions,this paper offers a line of thought for subsequent research.Even if oil prices are being manipulated,the authors point out,this cannot dictate prices or trends over the long term.